Sunday was Hollywood's big night, and as always I was glued to my television from mid-afternoon onward. I don't want to call the awards show boring, but while Jon Stewart did a fine job hosting, the overall broadcast was just a bit too, well, boring. With one exception ("Falling Slowly" from Once by Glen Hansard and Markéta Irglová), the best song nominees were spectacularly dull, and the canned montages before each of the big awards grew tiresome. The latter flaw, of course, was due to the recently resolved writers' strike. The show's producers prepared these reviews of past winners when there was a real chance no writers would be allowed to prepare material for the broadcast. Jon Stewart's Daily Show scribes did manage to cull a decent amount of gags in about a week, but some of the preproduced material was left in for padding.

Ironically, the show's highlight came during the presentation of the Best Song award. Hansard and Irglová walked to the stage to a warm reception from the Hollywood crowd. After Hansard gave his thanks, the band started playing, cutting off Irglová before she could utter a single word. After the next commercial break, Stewart took the unprecedented step of asking Irglová to return to the stage to speak. A truly classy gesture from the Oscar host. (Hopefully, the win for Once will mean a bigger audience for this amazing little film.)

As you've probably heard by now, the night's big winner was No Country for Old Men, which took home four statues, including Best Picture and Supporting Actor (Javier Bardem). Blockbuster action movie The Bourne Ultimatum surprised everyone by bagging three awards, though all were in technical categories. Both actress categories were minor upsets, with Marion Cotillard beating Julie Christie in Best Actress, while Tilda Swinton bested Cate Blanchett and Amy Ryan in the supporting field. Otherwise, the big awards went exactly as all the pundits had predicted.

So how did I do with my annual punditry? Not too well. I got only 14 of 24 categories correct. Last year, in a set of unpublished picks, I got 20 right. Two years ago I picked 18 and the year before that 15. Thus, this year marks a low point for me. I got burned by my prediction that Transformers would win three Oscars and Michael Clayton none. Instead, the giant robots were shut out, and Swinton made sure that Clayton got its due. Fine with me.

Here all the nights winners, along with a tally of which categories I got right and wrong:

✔ Picture: No Country for Old Men
✘ Actress: Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose (My pick: Julie Christie)
✔ Actor: Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
✘ Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton (My pick:  Amy Ryan)
✔ Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
✔ Director: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
✔ Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
✔ Original Screenplay: Juno
✔ Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
✘ Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum (My pick: No Country for Old Men)
✔ Art Direction: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
✘ Costume Design: Elizabeth: The Golden Age (My pick: Sweeney Todd)
✔ Original Score: Atonement
✔ Original Song: "Falling Slowly" - Once
✔ Makeup: La Vie En Rose
✘ Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum (My pick: Transformers)
✘ Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum (My pick: Transformers)
✘ Visual Effects: The Golden Compass (My pick: Transformers)
✔ Animated Feature: Ratatouille
✔ Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
✘ Documentary Feature: The Taxi to the Dark Side (My pick: No End in Sight)
✔ Documentary Short: Freeheld
✘ Animated Short Film: Peter & the Wolf (My pick: I Met the Walrus)
✘ Live Action Short Film: Le Mozart des Pickpockets (My pick: The Tonto Woman)

As longtime readers of No True Bill know, I love making my annual Oscar predictions. A few weeks ago, I posted prognostications of who would be nominated in several of the big categories. I did pretty well, getting all 5 right in the Best Supporting Actor category, 4 right each in the Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress categories, and only 3 right in the Best Actress category. In total, I got 20 out of 25 picks correct.

Well, the big show is Sunday night, which means it's time to pick winners in every single category. As everyone seems to agree, it should be a big night for No Country for Old Men, and the Coen brothers could make history if they win in all 4 categories in which they're nominated -- Best Picture (as the film's producers), Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing (under their pseudonym Roderick Jaynes). That's because no one has ever won 4 Oscars for the same movie. In addition, if they win Best Director, they will be only the second directing team to pick up the trophy, following Robert Wise and Jerome Robbin's win for 1961's West Side Story.

Without further ado, here are my picks:

Picture: No Country for Old Men
Actress: Julie Christie - Away From Her
Actor: Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Director: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Original Screenplay: Juno
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Editing: No Country for Old Men
Art Direction: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Costume Design: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Original Score: Atonement
Original Song: "Falling Slowly" - Once
Makeup: La Vie En Rose
Sound Mixing: Transformers
Sound Editing: Transformers
Visual Effects: Transformers
Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Documentary Short: Freeheld
Animated Short Film: I Met the Walrus
Live Action Short Film: The Tonto Woman

Yes, that's right. I'm predicting that Transformers will win 3 Academy Awards and Michael Clayton will win none. No one is sadder about this than me.

These are my picks for who I think will win. Who would I actually like to see win? For Best Picture, my personal favorite is There Will Be Blood. I loved Juno would love to see Ellen Page take home the best actress prize. In the Best Supporting Actor category, I thought Tom Wilkinson was brilliant in Michael Clayton. The two nominees I'd like to see win most are actually two I've picked to win: Best Supporting Actress Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) and Best Song "Falling Slowly" (Once - Watch the performance here).

Since I figure the Golden Globes will have little to no effect on the Oscar race (regardless of the media hype, they never really do), I’ll go ahead and publish my predictions of what films and performers will find themselves with a nomination when Academy Award nods are announced on Tuesday, January 22nd.

Best Picture
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

I’m being a bit stubborn here with Juno, as most of the early awards don’t necessarily support its inclusion here. But since the nominations often include some kind of indie darling (a la Little Miss Sunshine), it stays. Julian Schnabel’s The Diving Bell and Butterfly is my most notable omission, with Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd close behind. If Into the Wild or Juno stumbles, look for one or both of those films to fill the gap. Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men seem like locks after garnering DGA nominations, and No Country is the clear front runner for now.

Best Actor
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street)
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

As awards season opened, George Clooney took a sizable lead, but as There Will Be Blood slowly opens around the country, Daniel Day Lewis is quietly stealing all the buzz here. Those two actors are the only certainties in this category, though. Viggo Mortensen is long overdue for some recognition, while Emile Hirsch seems poised to break through with a nod. Johnny Depp, of course, is always a threat, and he looks to be Sweeney Todd’s best bet for a nomination. Denzel Washington (American Gangster) and James McAvoy (Atonement) are both lingering on the outside with a chance for a nomination.

Best Actress
Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Ellen Page (Juno)

Keira Knightley is the only weak link here, with Atonement not quite living up to its early hype. The other four, however, have had locks on nominations for quite some time. Cate Blanchett picked up unexpected nods from both the SAG and the Golden Globes for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, but with that film sinking with critics and audiences, I’m keeping Knightley in the mix. The true dark horse contender is Amy Adams whose likable turn in Enchanted could open the door for her. With several critics awards in the bag already, Julie Christie is the one to beat here.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

There’s little doubt that Javier Bardem is going home with a statue this year, friendo. Casey Affleck and Tom Wilkinson are pretty solid here, too. Paul Dano ought to be included for his great performance in There Will Be Blood, but he’s just not getting the love necessary to make this list. Tommy Lee Jones is also a contender, but Bardem is stealing all his No Country thunder. Phillip Seymour Hoffman will likely get a nod here, more so for having a strong year (The Savages, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead) than for Charlie Wilson’s War in particular, while veteran Hal Holbrook will help Into the Wild quietly rack up several high profile nominations.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

With a virtual clean sweep of the critics’ awards, Amy Ryan is far and away the favorite, but here status as a virtual unknown may hurt her come Oscar night. At the very least, however, her nomination is assured. So, too, are nods for Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton. Catherine Keener has garnered a lot of late buzz as Into the Wild has come from almost nowhere to become a bona fide contender in several categories. Saoirse Ronan, once a certain nominee, is currently losing ground thanks to snubs from other awards, most notably the SAGs. Like her Atonement co-star Knightley, I’m stubbornly keeping her on my short list because her position originally seemed invincible. But Ruby Dee’s late surge for American Gangster could sweep her in here pretty easily.

I have a brand new least favorite actor: Ernest Borgnine. Here's what the Academy Award winning actor had to say about "Brokeback Mountain" on Oscar night (as quoted in this week's issue of Entertainment Weekly):

I didn't see [Brokeback Mountain] and I don't care to see it. I know they say it's a good picture, but I don't care to see it. If John Wayne were alive, he'd be rolling over in his grave!

Actually, if John Wayne was still alive, yet still in a postition to roll over in his grave, I think he'd have bigger problems than a god damn movie.

Like everyone who failed to predict the surprise ending of Sunday's Academy Awards ceremony, Reuters is playing Monday Wednesday morning quarterback. Writer Martin Grove lists several reasons why everyone should have known that "Crash" would win the Best Picture Oscar. Among the reasons:

[I]nsiders are also pointing to a little known piece of Oscar trivia: not since 1980's "Ordinary People" has a film won the best picture Oscar without also having had a nomination for best film editing. "Brokeback [Mountain]" wasn't a film editing nominee this year, while "Crash" film editor Hughes Winborne took home the Oscar. Insiders claim that film editors don't vote for best picture nominees that aren't also best film editing nominees. There are 239 members of the Academy's Film Editors branch. If their votes are added to the 1,238 that quite possibly weren't cast at all, that's a total of 1,477 votes -- nearly 24% of the total Academy membership -- that didn't go to "Brokeback."

I've been using that little tip (coupled with a Best Director nod requirement) to make my Oscar picks since the early 1990's, and it's paid off well several times. When nominations were announced in 1996, for example, I immediately predicted that "Braveheart" would win Best Picture despite the fact that "Apollo 13" was an early favorite for a lot of people. Why did I make that call? Because it and "Babe" were the only two Best Picture nominees also nominated for both Directing and Editing. Since there seemed little chance of a film about a talking pig, even one as good as "Babe," winning Best Picture, "Braveheart" was the only other option. "The Rule" prevailed, and "Braveheart" took home the grand prize.

This year, however, I blatantly ignored my most favored of omens. When nominations came out in January, I noticed quickly that "Brokeback" wasn't up for the editing award. For just a millisecond I seriously thought, "It can't win Best Picture," but I immediately dismissed that logic and made a snap judgment that this was the year "The Rule" would be broken. Wise choice, grasshopper.

Maybe now I should sit down and actually watch "Crash." I did, after all, receive the DVD for Christmas. From what I hear, the editing is fantastic.

[Yahoo! News] Should have seen signs of "Crash" coming