As Roger Ebert notes, this does seem like one of the easier years to predict winners, especially in the acting categories, making long-winded analysis unnecessary. For once, however, the Best Picture category is legitimately, um, up in the air with only a few days to go. However, even in that race there's a favorite, and I'm sticking with it. So let's get to those predictions.

Best Picture
This is a two-horse race between "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker," each of which comes to the show with some negative baggage. "Avatar" director James Cameron rubs a lot of people the wrong way, and almost everyone who's raved about his latest movie qualifies their praise with something about the lackluster script and performances. Add in a little bit of negative publicity for Cameron's connection to Charles Pellgrino's debunked non-fiction book, "Last Train to Hiroshima," and you can probably count on a few lost votes. Alas, "The Hurt Locker" has been similarly compromised by allegations of inaccuracy and a violation of the Academy's campaign rules that resulted in one of its producers being banned from the Oscar ceremony. Assuming these controversies all cancel out, the buzz seems to favor "The Hurt Locker." A recent DVD release coupled with "Avatar" falling from the top of the weekly box office right about the time voters received their ballots, and it seems fair to predict... The winner will be: "The Hurt Locker"

Best Actor
Not even close. The winner will be: Jeff Bridges - "Crazy Heart"

Best Actress
Ditto. The winner will be: Sandra Bullock - "The Blind Side"

Best Supporting Actor
Ditto ditto. The winner will be: Christoph Waltz - "Inglourious Basterds"

Best Supporting Actress
Sigh. Ditto ditto ditto. The winner will be: Mo'Nique - "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Best Director
Finally. Another close race that warrants discussion. Given how much bigger a production "Avatar" was than "The Hurt Locker," an argument can be made that Cameron's work constitutes a more impressive accomplishment than Kathryn Bigelow's work on "The Hurt Locker." However, while Cameron spent most of his time dealing with technology on a soundstage, Bigelow produced far better performances from her cast. Given that actors make up more of the Academy's membership than any other discipline, that goes a long way. The Academy also likes making history, albeit 10 or 20 years late in most cases, so I expect voters to make a little history this year by (finally) naming a woman best director. The winner will be: Kathryn Bigelow - "The Hurt Locker"

And all the rest...
Original Screenplay: "Inglourious Basterds"
Adapted Screenplay: "Up in the Air"
Animated Feature: "Up"
Documentary Feature: "The Cove"
Foreign Language Film: "The White Ribbon"
Art Direction: "Avatar"
Cinematography: "Avatar"
Costume Design: "The Young Victoria"
Editing: "Avatar"
Makeup: "Star Trek"
Original Score: "Up"
Original Song: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" - "Crazy Heart"
Sound Editing: "Avatar"
Sound Mixing: "Avatar"
Visual Effects: "Avatar"
Documentary Short Subject: "China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province"
Animated Short Film: "Logorama"
Live Action Short Film: "The New Tenants"

Yep, it's that time of year. Tomorrow morning the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce this year's Oscar nominees. The biggest news this year is the expansion of the Best Picture category to ten nominees, presumably to pull more box office hits into the mix, leading to bigger ratings for the ceremony's TV broadcast. Some of the early favorites, like "The Lovely Bones" and "Nine" have seen their stars fall upon release. In contrast, 2009 could easily be called the year of science fiction, with the possibility of no less than three sci-fi contenders making the cut, led by a little movie called "Avatar."

And so to drop the title of one of my favorite movies of 2009 that won't be nominated for a damn thing, away we go...

BEST PICTURE
The Academy's decision to expand the Best Picture category to ten nominees for this particular year is rather humorous given that there are exactly five films with any realistic chance of winning: "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds," "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire" and "Up in the Air." So to fill out the category, there will be another 5 nominees who are there just for show. The shoo-ins are: "Up" and "An Education." I think two of the final three slots will go to the year's other sci-fi hits, "District 9" and "Star Trek." That leaves one last spot for either "The Blind Side," "Crazy Heart," "Invictus," "The Messenger," "Nine," "A Serious Man" and, yes, "The Hangover." Since "Nine" fell short of critical expectations; "The Blind Side," "Crazy Heart" and "The Messenger" are all performance pictures with guaranteed acting nods, and "A Serious Man" divided audiences to violent extremes, I'm left choosing between "The Hangover" and "Invictus." As much as I'd like to see the best mainstream comedy in years get the attention, I'm betting on Clint Eastwood's luck with the Academy to continue, making "Invictus" the final nominee.

"Avatar"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Invictus"
"Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire"
"Star Trek"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"

BEST ACTOR
Usually the Best Actress category is the one with no surprises, but this it's the Best Actor nods can be easily predicted based upon buzz and critics' awards. Jeff Bridges is already the easy favorite to win his first Oscar for "Crazy Heart." George Clooney's stash of critics' awards for "Up in the Air" make him a lock, too. Jeremy Renner's intense performance in "The Hurt Locker" looks like a certainty here, as does Morgan Freeman's turn as Nelson Mandela in "Invictus." Matt Damon turned in the best performance of his career in "The Informant!" as did Sam Rockwell in "Moon," but neither actor is getting any buzz or promotion, making them unlikely nominees. Tobey Maguire saw some early hype for "Brothers," but his chances have faded since. Instead, the last man standing here seems certain to be Colin Firth for "A Single Man."

Jeff Bridges - "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney - "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth - "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman - "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner - "The Hurt Locker" 

BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock looks sure to cap a tremendous 2009 comeback with a nomination for "The Blind Side," while the nearly annual Meryl Streep slot will go to her performance in "Julie and Julia." The two breakthrough nods this year will go to Carey Mulligan for "An Education" and Gabourey Sidibe for "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire." A lot of early attention was paid to Abbie Cornish for "Bright Star," but that film seems to have disappeared from the Oscar zeitgeist. Ditto for Emily Blunt in "Young Victoria" and Saoirse Ronan in "The Lovely Bones." Personally, I'd like to see Maya Rudolph get some notice for her great performance in "Away We Go," but a veteran in the category (and previous winner) seems a safer bet: Helen Mirren for "The Last Station."

Sandra Bullock - "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren - "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan - "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe - "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep - "Julie and Julia"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
There's no question at this point that Christoph Waltz will not only get a nomination for "Inglourious Basterds" but will stand at the podium to accept the award on Oscar night for one of the great performances of the last decade. As a result, Woody Harrelson will have to settle for a nomination this year for his lauded turn in "The Messenger." Stanley Tucci should see some recognition here as well as the one actor consistently singled out for his performance in "The Lovely Bones." While Matt Damon could get a nomination in the Best Actor category for "The Informant!" a supporting nomination for "Invictus" looks more likely. There's not been a lot of buzz for other contenders in this category, with Alfred Molina and Christian McKay generating a small amount of interest for "An Education" and "Me and Orson Welles," respectively, leaving the door wide open for Christopher Plummer to snag the final nod for his portrayal of Leo Tolstoy in "The Last Station."

Matt Damon - "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson - "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer - "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci - "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz - "Inglourious Basterds"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
When "Precious" first started generating Oscar attention, there was speculation that Mo'Nique's disinterest in awards and refusal to participate in promotion for the film would hurt her Oscar chances. Since then, however, she's swept the critics' awards and made some gracious acceptance speeches, so she now comes in as the front-runner by a large margin. Two actresses from "Up in the Air," Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, should also see well deserved nominations. The only Oscar buzz generated by the disappointing "Nine" seems to be for Penelope Cruz, so she looks certain to grab a nomination. The last spot seems to be a battle between Diane Kruger for "Inglourious Basterds" and Julianne Moore for "An Education." Moore is more well-known to Oscar voters, but I suspect most people don't even realize she was in that movie. Unless there's a vote split with "Basterd's" Melanie Laurent (who was submitted in the Best Actress category for the SAG Awards), I expect SAG nominee Diane Kruger to get that last nomination.

Penélope Cruz - "Nine"
Vera Farmiga - "Up in the Air"
Anna Kendrick - "Up in the Air"
Diane Kruger - "Inglourious Basterds"
Mo'Nique - "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire"

BEST DIRECTOR
I suppose I could go out on a limb here and pick an underdog like Neill Blomkamp ("District 9") or Clint Eastwood ("Invictus") to get a Best Director nod, but I'm going to stick with the same five movies I named above as the locks for Best Picture.

Kathryn Bigelow - "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron - "Avatar"
Lee Daniels - "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire"
Jason Reitman - "Up in the Air"
Quentin Tarantino - "Inglourious Basterds"