Since I figure the Golden Globes will have little to no effect on the Oscar race (regardless of the media hype, they never really do), I’ll go ahead and publish my predictions of what films and performers will find themselves with a nomination when Academy Award nods are announced on Tuesday, January 22nd.

Best Picture
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

I’m being a bit stubborn here with Juno, as most of the early awards don’t necessarily support its inclusion here. But since the nominations often include some kind of indie darling (a la Little Miss Sunshine), it stays. Julian Schnabel’s The Diving Bell and Butterfly is my most notable omission, with Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd close behind. If Into the Wild or Juno stumbles, look for one or both of those films to fill the gap. Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men seem like locks after garnering DGA nominations, and No Country is the clear front runner for now.

Best Actor
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street)
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

As awards season opened, George Clooney took a sizable lead, but as There Will Be Blood slowly opens around the country, Daniel Day Lewis is quietly stealing all the buzz here. Those two actors are the only certainties in this category, though. Viggo Mortensen is long overdue for some recognition, while Emile Hirsch seems poised to break through with a nod. Johnny Depp, of course, is always a threat, and he looks to be Sweeney Todd’s best bet for a nomination. Denzel Washington (American Gangster) and James McAvoy (Atonement) are both lingering on the outside with a chance for a nomination.

Best Actress
Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Ellen Page (Juno)

Keira Knightley is the only weak link here, with Atonement not quite living up to its early hype. The other four, however, have had locks on nominations for quite some time. Cate Blanchett picked up unexpected nods from both the SAG and the Golden Globes for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, but with that film sinking with critics and audiences, I’m keeping Knightley in the mix. The true dark horse contender is Amy Adams whose likable turn in Enchanted could open the door for her. With several critics awards in the bag already, Julie Christie is the one to beat here.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

There’s little doubt that Javier Bardem is going home with a statue this year, friendo. Casey Affleck and Tom Wilkinson are pretty solid here, too. Paul Dano ought to be included for his great performance in There Will Be Blood, but he’s just not getting the love necessary to make this list. Tommy Lee Jones is also a contender, but Bardem is stealing all his No Country thunder. Phillip Seymour Hoffman will likely get a nod here, more so for having a strong year (The Savages, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead) than for Charlie Wilson’s War in particular, while veteran Hal Holbrook will help Into the Wild quietly rack up several high profile nominations.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

With a virtual clean sweep of the critics’ awards, Amy Ryan is far and away the favorite, but here status as a virtual unknown may hurt her come Oscar night. At the very least, however, her nomination is assured. So, too, are nods for Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton. Catherine Keener has garnered a lot of late buzz as Into the Wild has come from almost nowhere to become a bona fide contender in several categories. Saoirse Ronan, once a certain nominee, is currently losing ground thanks to snubs from other awards, most notably the SAGs. Like her Atonement co-star Knightley, I’m stubbornly keeping her on my short list because her position originally seemed invincible. But Ruby Dee’s late surge for American Gangster could sweep her in here pretty easily.